Thursday, October 11, 2012

The breakdown

Ladies,

Examining the top 5 runners of both Salem and BNL yields an interesting point or two. Let me share them with you.

First, let's look at total time. If you add the total time of Salem, you get 1:08:10. Our total time was 1:09:07. Time differential, 57 seconds. That 57 seconds was worth 8 points. Obviously, we have to find a way to close that time.

Let's start with Danielle. Hate to lay the heat on you, but you have a big job. You have to run a smart race, dig in, and do something special. As I've often said to Carrie, you can do anything she can. If Carrie can break 21, and I think she can, so can you. This is the gig girls... 6:45 pace takes you under 21. You can do it. You must do it.

Retaining focus on Danielle, that's 28 seconds of the 57 erased. That's a great start. As captain, as one of the most experienced runners in the race, you have to step up to the task.

Carrie, you have to control that first mile also. 6:46 should be an easy thing to do, especially when you guys consider you were doing 800s at 6:08 pace. Think about that. Let it soak in. 6:46 will feel like a relative cruise. You only have to run 2 hard miles. 9 more seconds gone, 37 of 57 wiped out.

Shelby, 7-minute pace would be terrific. That would give you 21:40. I am setting a cautious goal for you, because your health has to be respected. If you hit 7-minute pace, you will net a 33-second drop. We are now ahead of Salem by 13 seconds.

Alli, that was a pretty solid run time-wise, but I think you could do the 7-minute pace, too. 24 more seconds gone, and we are ahead by 37 seconds.

Keeley, you have to make up your mind that anything Alli and Shelby can do, you can do. Don't get ahead of them until late in the race, if ever. That's another 33 seconds in the bag, and now we have 70 seconds advantage on Salem.

Morgan and Chloe, 7:15-7:20 pace is where you should start. Not one step faster! This will break 22 for both of you, and if things get close - and they might - your tie-breaker times will be critical.

Okay, sounds easy, right? Not really. We probably won't get it all for a variety of reasons, but if we can get most of it, and if Salem doesn't have the stellar night they had the other night, we beat them. Trust me on this one, girls... I've watched races for a long time, have raced myself for a long time, and I know what these girls are doing... the top three Salem girls will chase the front because they can't count on getting out as a team. Sydney Calhoun might, but the other two won't. That practically guarantees they'll blow up, because there'll be four State power teams there. The quality on the front will be too great for them to chase without a price.

What we have to be very careful about is that we don't get sucked into the front too. Our whole race plan turns on this point, ladies. We have to control that first mile.

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